Table of Contents
- Why We’re All Obsessed with Tomorrow’s Weather
- The Science Behind the Forecast: More Than Just a Guess
- Your 7-Point Checklist for Interpreting the Weather Tomorrow
- How Technology is Revolutionizing Our Forecasts
- Case Study: When the Weather Tomorrow Got It Wrong
- Actionable Tips: Planning Your Day Around the Forecast
- The Future of Predicting Tomorrow
Conclusion: Embracing Uncertainty
1. Why We’re Obsessed with Tomorrow’s Weather
The modern-day ritual of checking the weather forecast for the day is not just a mundane task. It, in fact, has its roots in the human desire to mitigate risk while also maintaining a certain level of control over the environment. Predicting the weather is of utmost importance to a plethora of industries, including agriculture, transportation, energy, and retail. Checking the weather forecast for the day is, small though it is, a report indicating the level of order and control in an otherwise chaotic world.
But do you see that number and wonder how it was calculated? Have you ever noted how the weather you see updates every hour for the next day?
2. The Science Behind the Forecast – No Guessing Involved
Gone are the days of predicting weather based on weather vanes and folk wisdom expressions. Nowadays, predicting the weather for the next day is an enormous challenge that requires the integration of data science, physics, and supercomputing. First is the global faction of sensors: satellites that scan and keep track of the formation of clouds, buoy networks that monitor and keep track of the temperature of the sea, weather balloons that measure pressure in the upper atmosphere, and ground stations that record the conditions. The data that they acquire amounts to petabytes that are stored in supercomputers that run numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.
These models are used to solve highly complicated equations of atmospheric physics. The atmosphere is a complex system; it is chaotic and very sensitive to initial conditions. This is the “butterfly effect,” and it is an example of where ensemble forecasting comes in. Meteorologists run models dozens of times and tweak their starting data ever so slightly. If 28 of 30 model runs say it will rain tomorrow, then the forecasts are highly confident. If those model runs are at a 15-15 split, the forecast will say “chance of showers,” indicating a certain level of Uncertainty. This is how sophisticated those forecasts are! Multiple historical weather datasets are pulled, and a statistical analysis is performed. The weather forecasts for tomorrow are incredibly complicated.
Now, Let’s Talk 7-Point Checklist to Help You Interpret the Weather Forecasts and Make Better Decisions Tomorrow.
So, instead of just looking at the temperature and everything else on the weather report, provide a lot of value to yourself and to the people around you by using this checklist.
3. Your 7-Point Checklist for Interpreting the Weather Tomorrow
1. Check the Hour-by-Hour Breakdown. If the weather report displays a temperature of 75 degrees and a shining sun, there’s a lot more to be seen in those hours than just temperature and weather. Seventy-five degrees is very comfortable, but just be sure to check how long the temperature will remain at that level.
2. Decoding PoP: To say, “30% chance of rain” does not mean rain will cover 30% of your area, or rain will cover 30% of the day. It simply means there’s a 30% chance (30% of the day/30% of the area and 0% otherwise), rain, however negligible, will fall at least once on your location at some point. For tomorrow’s weather, a brief shower with high confidence PoP, but a lower percentage likely PoP might happen, while a high PoP but low confidence suggests a prolonged drizzle with no guarantees.
3. Winds and “Feels Like” Temperatures: A day could be 40°F in temperature, but with 20 mph winds, it is colder, hence why people say, “bitter cold. This will be the opposite in the summer, with humidity, as it could be 105°F and heavily humid with a “feels like” temperature of only 10°F. Of course, evaporation will be drastically different on the lower wet bulb side of the temperature for planning tomorrow’s weather.
4. To Scan the Discussion: A lot of national weather services, including the US NWS, release a “Forecast Discussion” for everyone. In it weather scientists explain their models in simple English. You can find, for example, “Your tomorrow weather forecast confidence will be lower because models diverge on the path of the low-pressure system; hence, we will stop forecasting precise precipitation outcomes for the day.” This is a valuable perspective.
5. Look for Different Trusted Sources: Don’t use one app. Look at apps and accounts from government and private meteorologists. If they all say the same thing, you can be more certain that the predictions are true for the weather tomorrow.
6. Look for When the Data was Last Updated: A forecast from 6 am is less good than one from 8 pm. That’s because the 8 pm forecast includes a new day’s worth of atmospheric data, so it’s more accurate. Make sure the estimates you’re checking for the weather tomorrow are from the most recent update.
7. Microclimates are Important: Do you live in a valley, near large bodies of water, or in urban areas? If you answered yes to any of those, the weather around you is likely to be different from the forecast for the rest of the region. Make sure to learn your home’s unique weather patterns.
4. How Technology is Revolutionizing Our Forecasts
Wanting to know tomorrow’s weather has driven some amazing new advances in technology. Using AI and Machine Learning, companies are saving and analyzing complex patterns in historical weather data. To predict the weather precisely, a new technology is being used to monitor weather data in a very small area, tracking microclimates.
One of the greatest advancements concerns computing power. With exascale computing, models can run at higher resolutions, enabling the atmosphere to be simulated in smaller ‘grid boxes’. This means that models could potentially predict the formation of a thunderstorm at the county level as opposed to a larger area. For end-users, this means they will have the ability to receive more relevant and actionable insights about the weather in the immediate future. The integration of real-time pressure data that comes from millions of smartphones and other connected devices is also creating a ‘living’ map of the atmosphere. This draws closer the ability to predict the weather tomorrow.
5. Case Studies: The Weather Tomorrow is Wrong
One prediction that has become well-known in the history of forecasting is the Great Storm of 1987 in the UK. The evening before the storm, a lead presenter at the BBC ignored warnings of the severe storm, confident in the official forecast. Unfortunately, the storm resulted in hurricane-force winds that took the lives of 18 people and caused widespread destruction. The models used to forecast the storm did not include such rapid intensification of the storm.
How accurate is the forecasting? Similar cases of forecasting failures (Forecast Busts) still happen today. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy was one of the cases in which multiple forecasting models failed to predict the storm’s track and intensity right up until the days before landfall. These instances show just how difficult the task of forecasting the extreme weather of tomorrow can be. This is also why meteorologists use probabilities and confidence levels, leading us to understand the importance of even the most minor predictions and alerts, even with nice weather. Forecasting the extreme weather of tomorrow is just that, forecasting.
6. Actionable Tips: Planning Your Day Around the Forecast
How can you use the weather tomorrow to plan?
Commuting. Most people are familiar with the feeling of biking to work and then having to take the bus home because of rain. Most people are also familiar with the feeling of getting stuck in the rain without a way home. If rain is forecast at 2 pm, plan to take the bus home (and other places you are planning to be) if you bike to work.
Outdoor Activities. If the forecast doesn’t look too stable, look at the hour-by-hour forecast, PoP, and radar trends. If you are planning a garden party and you see there’s a 50% PoP, be prepared to switch to plan B. If you’re planning to have the garden party and the confidence of rain is low, it could be a passing cloud.
For Agriculture & Gardening: Tomorrow’s Weather determines if we irrigate, harvest, and apply pesticides. Pay attention to precipitation forecasts, frost warnings and soil temperature forecasts.
General Rule: Always prepare for slightly worse weather than what is forecast. If it’s a 30% chance, pack that umbrella. If temperatures for the evening are borderline, bring a layer. It’s about managing risk.
7. The Future of Predicting Tomorrow
The future looks bright. We are working towards “seamless forecasting”. The goal is to create a continuously updated forecast that combines today’s weather, the weather for tomorrow and the following week into one seamless probabilistic estimate. We are also integrating climate modeling, improving our understanding of a warming planet and its impact on the probability of extreme weather occurring tomorrow.
Forecasting will take personalization to a whole new level. For example, your calendar app analyzes your calendar and hyper-local weather data and sends alerts like: “Leave 10 minutes earlier, you will hit a thunderstorm on your route to your 3 pm meeting.” The core question of “what will the weather be tomorrow?” will be more of “what will the weather be tomorrow and the day after for me and my plans?”
The Need for Tomorrow’s Weather: The Need for Personalization.
It’s something we have always done; humans have always wanted to know the weather tomorrow. No matter how the tools to see the weather have advanced, the goal will always be the same: to navigate your day in a way that you have ease and safety. The weather tomorrow tells a story, a story of data. You are active, an informed partner with the atmosphere. The weather will be a little, the story will be data; data fluid and dynamic, with human ingenuity. The complex and beautiful weather story will be outside your window to appreciate for tomorrow, to appreciate how tomorrow’s weather, and the day after, open you up to all the possibilities.
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